九游会在线 -丕噩賲賱氐赗乇爻片爻胤賷夭hd

　　查看PDF原文公告日期：2016-02-22

　　香港交易所(00388) We expect 2015 earnings to grow by 56.4% YoY. HKEx will announce its results forfull year 2015 on Mar 2,九游会网页版 2016. We estimate net profit attributable to shareholders tobe HK$8,九游会官方网站078 million,九游会官方平台 up 56.4% YoY. The substantial increase was mainly attributableto the record high yearly ADT and LME’s contribution. We expect the net profit for15Q4 to be HK$1,653 million, up by 9.4% YoY and down by 29.0% QoQ. We estimate ADT to return to the normal range of around HK$70-90bn in 2016. Forfull year 2015, average daily turnover value on the stock exchange was HK$105.6bn,representing an increase of 52% YoY. ADT for 15Q4 was HK$71.9bn, which decreasedby 11% YoY and 29% QoQ. Average daily number of derivative contracts traded onthe Futures Exchange and stock options increased by 43% and 24%, respectively. Weestimate ADT for 2016 to be around HK$88bn, dropping by 17% compared to that of2015. The SZ-HK connect is expected to be launched in 2016. However, consideringthe past performance of SH-HK connect, the trading volume through the stockconnect is unlikely to be substantial. Substantial YoY increase in total funds raised and funds raised by IPO. Total fundsraised for full year 2015 amounted to HK$1,109bn, representing an increase of 18%YoY, of which funds raised by IPOs amounted to HK$261bn, increasing by 12% YoY,driven by the H-share IPOs of several securities companies. Total funds raised in 15Q4were HK$257bn, decreasing by 22% YoY. Compared with the volatile change in equityfinancing amount, HKEx’s listing fees were relatively stable. We estimate listing feesto be around HK$270mn in 15Q4, which was flat compared with that of 15Q3. Investment income likely stayed flat QoQ as composite interest rate remained stable.The composite interest rate is a weighted average interest rate of all Hong Kong dollarinterest bearing liabilities, and it decreased continuously from 0.45% in 14Q2 to 0.26%in 15Q3, and kept flat QoQ in 15Q4. We estimate the investment income in 15Q4 wasHK$143mn, flat QoQ, given the stable composite interest rate in Q4. We estimate LME’s contribution to be around 19% of total revenue in 2015. Weestimate total revenue from LME’s commodity business for full year 2015 amounted toHK$1.75bn, and LME Clear generated revenue of around HK$0.8bn. The contributionfrom LME is estimated to be 19% of total revenue. We expect a slight increase in LME’scontribution in 2016. Maintain LT-Buy. We maintain our estimate for 15E earnings, lower our assumption forADT in 16E, and revise downward 16E earnings estimate by 19.8%. Our new forecastspoint to +56.4%/-9.0% earnings growth in 15E/16E. We lower TP to HK$206, equivalentto 33x 16E PE. In the short term, we expect positive performance of the HK market, asthe CNY exchange rate has stabilized temporarily, China’s loan growth and investmentgrowth beat expectation, and there is more modest expectation of further rate hike inthe US. The counter is trading at 25.3x 15E P/E or 6.8x 15E P/B. Maintain LT-Buy rating.

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